Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba to be Japan's Next PM

Former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba looks set to become Japan’s prime minister early next week.

Ishiba, 67, won a ballot on Friday to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, defeating hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi in a run-off vote described as one of the most unpredictable leadership elections in decades.

The political veteran was one of nine candidate attempting for a fifth – and what he said was his final – bid to lead the country.

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The leader of the LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, is essentially assured of becoming the next premier because of its majority in parliament. A special session of parliament is scheduled for Tuesday to vote Ishiba into office.

“We must believe in the people, speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and work together to make Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can live with a smile once again,” an emotional Ishiba said in a speech to LDP lawmakers after the result.

The scramble to replace premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced he would step down over a series of scandals that plunged the LDP’s ratings to record lows.

Ishiba, a self-proclaimed lone wolf whose contrarian views and spats with colleagues contributed to four previous failed leadership bids, has long been popular with the general public. But he said this was his “final battle”.

With the LDP facing a general election some time in the next 13 months, analysts said Ishiba’s selection suggests some in the party appear to have put aside personal grievances to harness his public appeal.

They have “gravitated towards a popular figure who does well in media appearances and isn’t afraid to criticise his own party when he thinks they’re in the wrong,” Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, said.

The yen strengthened against the dollar following Ishiba’s victory, reversing a fall on news he would face the run-off against Takaichi, a monetary dove and fiscal expansionist.

Supporter of an Asian NATO

Ishiba faces a raft of challenges at home and abroad.

He must quell anger over rising living costs and simmering anger about his scandal-plagued party and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.

His approach to diplomacy with Japan’s closest ally, the United States, will be in focus given he has repeatedly called for a more balanced relationship with Washington.

In his campaign, he called for the creation of an Asian NATO, an idea that could draw ire from Beijing and has already been dismissed by a senior US official as hasty.

The US ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, congratulated Ishiba, posting on X that he looked forward to working with him to strengthen the US-Japan alliance.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, asked about Ishiba’s appointment, said Beijing hopes Japan has an “objective and correct” understanding of China.

Ishiba entered parliament in 1986 after a short banking career. His outspoken views have earned him enemies in the LDP.

Party maverick opposed more nuclear energy

He was sidelined by outgoing Prime Minister Kishida, becoming a dissenting voice in the party who enjoyed broad support from LDP rank-and-file members as well as the public.

Ishiba has rebelled on policies including the increased use of nuclear energy, a contentious subject due to the devastating meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011, and has criticized his party for supporting Japan’s ban on married couples using separate surnames.

Hideki Masui, the head of nuclear energy lobby Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, said on Friday that he hoped Japan’s new leadership would continue promoting nuclear power, which he said was essential to the country’s energy security.

To solidify his rule over a fractured party, Ishiba will need to draw from a wide base to form his cabinet, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at The Asia Group Japan.

“If he just rewards the people who supported him, that’s going to cause a lot of trouble with the people who supported Takaichi and the people who dislike him,” Nishimura said.

Ishiba is expected to announce his cabinet after Tuesday’s parliament session.