China 'May Issue $1.4 Trillion in Extra Debt Over a Few Years'

China is considering issuing over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt next week, but economic decisions that top lawmakers will make may hinge on the outcome of the US election.

Sources have told Reuters that the debt – aimed at reinvigorating its weak economy – could be further bolstered if Donald Trump wins a return to the White House.

China’s top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), is looking to approve the fresh fiscal package, including 6 trillion yuan which would partly be raised via special sovereign bonds, on the last day of a meeting to be held from November 4-8, the two sources said.

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The 6-trillion-yuan worth of debt would be raised over three years including 2024, said the sources, adding that proceeds would primarily be used to help local governments address off-the-books debt risks.

The planned total amount, to be raised by issuing both special treasury and local government bonds, equates to over 8% of the output of the world’s second-largest economy, which has been hit hard by a protracted property sector crisis and ballooning debt of local governments.

Reuters confirmed for the first time that Chinese authorities are contemplating approving a 10-trillion-yuan stimulus package, an amount that financial analysts have said in recent weeks they expect Beijing to consider.

The spending plans suggest that Beijing has switched into a higher stimulus gear to prop up the economy although it’s still not the 2008-like “bazooka” that some investors have been calling for.

Late last month the central bank announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the Covid pandemic. The government followed up weeks later by flagging more fiscal stimulus without specifying details of the package, stoking intense speculation in global markets about the size of the new spending.

The sources who have knowledge of the matter declined to be named due to confidentiality constraints.

The State Council Information Office and the news department of the NPC Standing Committee did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

The sources cautioned that the plans are not finalized and could be subject to changes.

China’s top legislative body generally holds its meeting every two months – in the second half of even-numbered months. As per the parliament’s 2024 work agenda, released in May, a standing committee session was planned for October.

The forthcoming meeting was initially planned for late October before being rescheduled to early November, one of the sources said.

The meeting’s timing, which coincides with the week of the US presidential vote on November 5, offers Beijing greater flexibility to adjust the fiscal package including the total size, based on the election outcome, the sources said.

Beijing may announce a stronger fiscal package if Trump wins a second presidency as his return to the White House is expected intensify the economic headwinds for China, the two sources said.

Republican candidate Trump has gained in recent polls to erase much of the early advantage of his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has vowed to impose 60% duties on imports from China.

Help for local governments

As part of its latest fiscal package, the NPC Standing Committee is also expected to green-light all or part of up to 4 trillion yuan worth of special-purpose bonds for idle land and property purchases over the next five years, the sources said.

Local governments would be allowed to raise that amount on top of their usual annual issuance quota, which mainly funds infrastructure spending. The quota stood at 3.9 trillion yuan this year and 3.8 trillion in 2023.

The latest move is aimed at enhancing local governments’ ability to manage land supply, and alleviate liquidity and debt pressures on both local governments and property developers, they added.

Special-purpose bonds are a tool for off-budget debt financing used by Chinese local governments, with the proceeds raised typically earmarked for specific policy objectives, such as infrastructure expenditures.

Should the NPC Standing Committee approve these issuances in full instead of in stages, it could increase the total stimulus size to over 10 trillion yuan, they added. An average of 2 trillion yuan in new central government debt annually underscores an urgency in Beijing to shore up the economy.

Late in 2023, China issued 1 trillion yuan in sovereign bonds to bolster flood-prevention infrastructure and meet its roughly 5% economic growth target.

Beijing started this year with plans to issue 1 trillion yuan in special sovereign debt already in place, but that sum is widely expected to be increased as growth has been drifting off target and economists said a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.

Still, the planned fiscal spending falls short of the firepower deployed in 2008, when Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus in response to the global financial crisis accounted for 13% of GDP at the time.

The extra money fuelled a property market frenzy and led to unfettered lending to local government financing vehicles, which municipalities used to get around official borrowing restrictions.

As part of the overall fiscal spending, China is also considering approving other stimulus initiatives worth at least one trillion yuan, such as a consumption boost including trade-in and renewal of consumer goods, the sources said.

Another trillion yuan could also be raised via special treasury bonds for capital injection into large state banks, said one of the sources and another source with knowledge of the matter.