China’s demand for road and air transport fuels is likely to begin a downward trajectory, with experts estimating the country’s consumption of gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel may have passed it peak.
The forecasts were shared by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which cited data showing that the country’s consumption of the three fuels declined marginally in 2024.
Combined consumption of the three fuels in China last year was at 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd), which was 200,000 bpd lower than in 2021 and only narrowly above 2019 levels, the IEA said in a monthly report.
Also on AF: BYD to Offer Tesla-Like Self-Driving Tech in All Models For Free
“This strongly suggests that fuel use in the country has already reached a plateau and may even have passed its peak,” it said.
China has, for decades, led the global growth in oil demand but its consumption of fuel is sputtering as it faces economic challenges and makes a drastic shift to electric vehicles (EVs).
The decline in China’s fuel demand is likely to accelerate over the medium term, which would be enough to generate a plateau in total China oil demand this decade, according to the Paris-based IEA.
“This remarkable slowdown in consumption growth has been achieved by a combination of structural changes in China’s economy and the rapid deployment of alternative transportation technologies,” the IEA said.
A slump in China’s construction sector and weaker consumer spending reduced fuel demand in the country, it said, adding that uptake of EVs was also a factor.
New EVs currently account for half of car sales and undercut around 250,000-300,000 bpd of oil demand growth in 2024, while use of compressed and liquified natural gas in road freight displaced around 150,000 bpd, it said.
EVs sales in China accounted for more than half of the world’s total last year.
Of the 17.1 million EV sales globally, 11 million were from China according to data from research firm Rho Motion. That marked a 40% jump in sales, compared to 2023.
- Reuters, with additional editing by Vishakha Saxena
Also read:
Nearly One in Every Two Cars Sold in China Was Electric in 2024
All-Time-High EV Sales in China Defy Slowdown Worry
Energy Emissions Set to Peak But ‘Not in Time’ For Climate Goals
China’s BYD Beat Tesla Again in EV Sales in Q4 Last Year – SCMP
Trump Planning to Clamp Down on Chinese EV Supply Chains
In Battle for China EV Market, Xiaomi’s ‘Thor’ Takes on Elon Musk
