Indian Rupee Dips to New Low on US Rate Hike Fears, RBI Stance

The Indian rupee tumbled to a fresh record low against the dollar on Monday after a US jobs report stoked bets of more large Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Traders also noted that the Reserve Bank of India was likely to intervene in currency markets to help the local currency claw back some losses.

The rupee was trading around 82.38 at 10.30am local time on Tuesday, having hit a low of 82.6825 on Monday, compared to its previous close of 82.32. Traders said the RBI was likely selling dollars through state-run banks at around 82.60-82.65 levels.

The rupee has plumbed fresh lows in recent sessions on worries over oil prices, rising Treasury yields, corporate outflows and offshore demand for the US currency.

“Heading into the week, we expect the dollar index to remain firm… US inflation report due on Thursday and reaffirmation of higher interest rates through Fed minutes and speeches by Fed officials are likely to keep the dollar index well supported,” HDFC economists wrote in a note.

“This implies that the rupee could remain under pressure in the near-term. However, any sharp move in the pair is likely to be checked by the RBI.”

The economists saw a possibility of the pair moving above 83 levels, amid growing fears of rupee’s poor form continuing till the end of the fiscal year.

The rupee is likely to fall to 84-85 to the dollar by March, after hitting 83.50 by December, Garima Kapoor, an economist at Elara, said. She also highlighted the rising pace of depletion of India’s foreign exchange reserves.

India’s foreign exchange reserves were $532.66 billion as of end-September, their lowest since July 2020. That is a near 16% drop from $633.6 billion at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was steady around 112.8, while US yields rose after the jobs data that was considered robust enough to keep the Fed on its path to deliver one more 75 basis points rate hike next month.